Corporates' strategic responses to economic policy uncertainty in China

Using a novel news‐based index of economic policy uncertainty, this paper studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate strategic positioning and corporate risk in China from 2009 to 2015. The study also investigates the impact of corporate strategic positioning on corporate risk. The results show that corporate strategic positioning and economic policy uncertainty have a significant positive impact on corporate risk. The results also explain that economic policy uncertainty increases the market risk of the firms irrespective of their corporate strategy. However, it increases the business risk of prospector firms and decreases the business risk of defensive firms. The study may help the firms to formulate and improve their strategic positioning while considering economic policy uncertainty. Our results are robust to alternate proxies of economic policy uncertainty and corporate risk.     

Environmental policies,national culture,and stock price crash risk: Evidence from renewable energy firms

This study investigates the impact of country‐level environmental performance and national culture on the stock price crash risk of renewable energy firms. Employing a large sample of 626 renewable energy firms across 31 countries, we find a significant nonlinear relationship between country‐level environmental performance and crash risk. National culture dimensions are found to strongly predict the crash risk of renewable energy firms, particularly after the global financial crisis. On the contrary, national culture dimensions and environmental policies are observed to not exert any significance in explaining the crash risk of fossil fuel firms. Our results are robust with respect to alternative measures of stock price crash risk and the endogeneity of national culture dimensions. Overall, the findings of this paper contribute to the environmental economics literature by providing new evidence regarding the role of societal and environmental factors in explaining the stock price crash risk of energy firms.     

互联网金融的信用风险评估与预警研究

随着互联网金融的蓬勃发展，用户对消费金融的需求也越来越丰富多样。满足用户的多样化需求与建立健全风险监管体系成为互联网金融发展的重中之重。如何实现数据驱动服务升级、技术辅助市场监管成为研究的热点问题。本文通过数据处理与特征工程实现用户认证信息、金融信息、行为信息的融合，利用深度森林算法建立模型进行信用风险评估。结果表明，该方法能有效挖掘数据潜在价值，提高信用风险评估与预警效果。最后，本文针对互联网金融的信用风险预警与市场监管提出了建议。     

Political risk in private participation projects: The effects of political discretionality and corruption

This article investigates the impact of political risk on the performance of private participation infrastructure projects in emerging markets. Previous studies have shown that firms in regulated sectors are prone to employ political capabilities in their investments overseas. Our analysis of 32,257 projects in 114 emerging countries from 1997 to 2013 shows that higher political discretionality in the host country is negatively associated with project completion. In contrast, a higher level of corruption in the host country is positively associated with project completion. The study makes a contribution to the literature on political risk in foreign direct investments.     

Chinese multinationals on the New Silk Route: Managing political risk by branding the nation

Though Chinese multinational enterprises (CMNEs) have brought investment and opportunities to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, there has been scepticism regarding the content and context of their investment. On the one hand, infrastructural development contributes to GDP formation and enhances the efficiency of productive inputs where international trade enhances technology and export development, which jointly provides a path to economic growth. On the other hand, critical issues such as debt sustainability and national sovereignty among countries that have gone through the decolonization process mean that CMNEs need to grasp the implication of political risk when investing. This article focuses on South and Southeast Asia, where China has historical socio‐economic relationship, and proposes a nation branding model combining tradition and modernity which can be the way forward for CMNEs to mitigate political risk in relation to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investment. Nation branding of BRI could be seen as a continuity of China's unfinished business in globalization that has preceded the modern polity; nevertheless, there is a need to communicate a coherent and authentic message that reflects the reality of business operations.     

财务公司的风险管理与内部控制

财务公司是一类特殊的金融机构,既有风险内生性特点,也易受外部风险传导。在风险管理与内部控制上,要坚持业务发展与内部控制相平衡的原则,一方面要遵循普适性、规律性的银行业规则(巴塞尔协议),另一方面也要充分考虑所属集团的具体实际情况,服务于集团和财务公司战略目标的实现。     

Switzerland’s transition from flood defence to flood-adapted land use–A policy coordination perspective

This contribution examines Switzerland’s shift towards integrated flood risk management from a policy coordination perspective. The study applies a heuristic framework of policy coordination to explore how adaption needs promoted cross-sectoral policy coordination between hydraulic engineering and land use planning and enhanced coherence in flood policies targeting extreme flood events. To account for the temporal dimension in policy coordination, the article traces Swiss flood policies back to the early 1800s and distinguishes four phases of policy coordination. Across the four periods, the analysis focuses on (a) the drivers of policy coordination, (b) the manifestation of policy coordination in terms of policy frames, goals, instruments and subsystem involvement, and (c) the performance of policy coordination. Complemented by an in-depth case study of cross-sectoral flood policies in the Swiss canton Nidwalden findings show that the coordination between flood and land use policies has primarily been driven by three factors: (i) extreme floods as focusing events, (ii) an increasing problem pressure, and (iii) strategic reorientations in flood and land use policies. Today, flood risk management in Switzerland displays a high degree of sectoral interplay between hydraulic engineering and spatial planning. By fostering flood-adapted land uses Switzerland’s coordinated flood policies reduce the vulnerability to uncertain future changes in flood risk and strengthen the country’s capacities to mitigate damage in extreme floods events.     

农产品供应链重构风险传导SIR建模与仿真研究

[目的]利用动力学SIR模型模拟农产品供应链重构内生风险传导过程,以期在有效把握核心重构风险传导规律基础上为整体管控重构进程风险提出前瞻性思路。[方法]基于农产品供应链重构风险整体构架和重构进程风险传导复杂网络,以湖北省243家大型连锁超市生鲜农产品供应链2007—2017年重构样本数据为研究对象,建立重构进程内生风险传导SIR模型和规划演化模式,利用Matlab软件对模型仿真得到有效管控状态下演化趋势。[结果]在以战术性重构为主导组织结构战略性重构中进程风险传导安全边际X1s超过50%,决定了其净风险阈α0(i)、β0(i),相应的业务单元和功能模块重构进程风险预警和风险恢复能力提高值是主控指标,对进程风险传导感染率x1(i)和恢复率x2(i)起主导作用。[结论]近年来土地流转驱动农产品供应链重构中组织结构重构整体具有战略性,在以战术性重构为主导风险传导管控中重点应加强业务单元和功能模块重构进程在重构易感状态(S)、感染传播状态(I)管控能力,能有效降低波动幅度。     

重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中公众参与成熟度的影响路径

重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中,公众是重要的参与主体,个体间生活环境、知识背景及心理素质的差异性会直接影响稳评结果。公众参与成熟度是公众参与的衡量要素,由能力成熟度和心理成熟度两个方面构成。从能力与心理两个角度设计调查问卷,运用结构方程模型,探究内部影响路径。结果表明,公众参与心理成熟度直接影响能力成熟度,而能力成熟度又通过参与意愿影响着心理成熟度,两者间存在相互影响的关系。政府可以通过开展道德素质教育,改善公众参与动机,以提高公众参与心理成熟度及能力成熟度,最终整体提高公众参与成熟度,保证稳评工作的质量,提升重大水利工程项目决策科学性。     

公司诉讼风险对审计决策的影响研究——基于异常审计费用和审计意见的证据

近年来上市公司诉讼风险不断攀升，对审计师决策行为的影响日益凸显。基于这一背景，系统探讨公司诉讼风险对审计决策的影响，分别研究公司诉讼风险对审计费用决策和审计意见决策的影响，并考察在诉讼风险冲击下审计费用决策和审计意见决策间的关系,同时结合我国制度背景，研究法律环境差异性对两种决策之间关系的影响。研究发现：公司诉讼风险越高，审计师收取正向异常审计费用的概率越高，出具非标准审计意见的可能性越大；审计费用策略和审计意见策略之间存在替代关系，即审计师倾向于在出具标准审计意见时收取正向异常审计费用作为风险补偿。进一步研究表明，在外部法律环境薄弱地区，审计费用决策和审计意见决策之间的替代关系更加显著。研究结论有助于合理解释和评价审计师的决策行为，对监管机构规范审计师的行为有着一定的启示意义。